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What do the England local elections have in store for the parties?
On the 5th of May, people in many parts of England will have the opportunity to exercise their right to vote and choose representatives for the local councils. With local elections having the power to bring about significant change on the political scene, it’s worth taking a look at what’s in store for the parties.
This year, 5th May marks an important day for England. It’s the day when local elections will be held in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Things have changed a lot since most of these seats were up for election, for both parties and voters. Back in 2018, we were living in a pre-pandemic era, with the UK still part of the European Union, and the parties had other leaders guiding them through the elections. Theresa May was the leader of the Conservative, coming into power after the Brexit referendum which caused a lot of turmoil at the time, and Jeremy Corbyn was at the head of the Labour party.
The results reflected a neck-and-neck situation between the Liberals and the Tories. While the Labour party managed to beat the Conservatives in London, the Tories gained positions in the rest of England, so there was no clear winner at the end of the elections.
Now, with Boris Johnson leading the Conservative party and Sir Keir Starmer at the head of the Labour party, we can expect things to take a different turn.
What’s at stake in these local elections?
At this year’s elections, voters will get to choose who’s going to run their local services in the next years. Local councils are responsible for providing public services for people in each region in the UK. These services include social care, bin collections, road maintenance, housing, etc. Thus, the results of the vote will not only influence people’s lives in their local area but will also be a reflection of each party’s political performance, showing how voters feel about the current leaders.
Over 4300 seats are up for election in about 146 councils, as well as a few mayoral elections and seats on parish councils. England has the largest number of seats contested: more than 4000 seats in all major cities and in all 32 London boroughs. A new regional mayor will be elected in South Yorkshire and 1000 seats are up for grabs on parish councils. Note that those who want to express their preferences and vote in England will have to register to vote before April 14. Polling stations will be open from 7 am to 10 pm.
In Northern Ireland, voters will be electing members to the Northern Ireland Assembly. As expected, this is going to be a battle between unionists and nationalists. The Democratic Unionist Party has dominated the assembly since 2003, followed closely by nationalists Sinn Féin. According to recent polls, Sinn Féin have a good chance of turning things around in their favour this year and taking the lead.
In Scotland, voters will choose representatives in all 32 local authorities, totalling 1219 seats. In the 2017 elections, the Conservatives made the most gains, but they couldn’t seize control, so the majority of the councils were run by coalitions instead.
In Wales, all seats in the 22 local councils are up for elections, amounting to 1234 seats. As with Scotland, there isn’t one party to hold control over local councils. Coalitions have been in charge of running local services since the 2017 elections.
What are the outlooks for the parties?
Now let’s see what are the odds for each party and what might happen after this year’s elections. Some say the Conservatives enter these elections on a positive note, considering the success they’ve had in the 2019 general elections when Boris Johnson came into power and also keeping in mind last year’s local elections when the party gained several seats in councils across England. However, one can’t ignore important variables.
For starters, these elections will differ from the ones that took place last year, not only because they’re held in other parts of the country, but also because the political scene looks different today. The war in Ukraine, the increased cost of living, and the partygate scandal are all important factors in this political equation. These elections will most likely serve as a major test for Boris Johnson, but they’ll also give us a clue on how satisfied the population is with regard to the handling of the Covid-19 crisis.
Given the large number of seats up for grabs in London, all eyes will be on how Conservatives will perform in the capital. However, there’s also a lot of interest in how they will do in councils where they’ve won seats in the 2019 elections. Up until now, Conservatives have been considered to have the greatest advantage, due to their current leader, but it remains to be seen if this is still an asset for them or not.
On the other hand, the Labour party has a lot to defend. In 2018, they managed to come neck-and-neck with the Tories, and they don’t want to lose what they’ve gained so far. Their results in London have boosted their confidence, but it’s going to take more than that to defend their position. Party leader Sir Keir Starmer also has some recent electoral losses to compensate for, which makes their mission all the more difficult. It wouldn’t be a surprise if they’d focus on the high costs of living in their campaign.
Looking at the other parties, we can see that the Lib Dems will probably follow the Labour party closely in certain areas. However, their main focus will be winning over voters from the Tories, as they’ve sensed an opportunity stemming from people’s need for change. For Lib Dems, the results of these elections hold special importance, as they can support their further progress and help them advance on the national stage.
As you can see, there’s a lot at stake for parties at these local elections, so it’s going to be a battle worth keeping your eyes on.